Wednesday, April 07, 2004

This just in: Verizon leads in wireless user satisfaction survey

Looks like I made the right choice to "churn" over to Verizon last December!

by Dan Meyer (RCR News)
April 07, 2004 1:31 PM EST

A survey of 1,000 cell-phone users by Strategy Analytics found that Verizon Wireless continues to lead the industry in user satisfaction and is the destination choice for 30 percent of potential churning customers. The survey, which is part of the firm's U.S. Wireless Satisfaction Monitor, noted the carrier sets a daunting benchmark for its competition, achieving class-leading ratings for service quality and customer care.

Despite a relatively weak device portfolio, sub-par bundled minutes and light youth segment presence relative to Sprint, Cingular [Wireless L.L.C.] and other national operators, Verizon Wireless continues to represent the gold standard in customer satisfaction, said David Kerr, vice president and global wireless practice leader at Strategy Analytics.

Nextel Communications Inc. also scored well in the survey with senior industry analyst and report author Sara Harris noting Nextel can be proud of its customer loyalty.

The survey also found that Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA Inc. users believe they are receiving good value from their carriers regarding both handsets and service; that Cingular customers reported a healthy range of average and marginally above-average responses; AT&T Wireless Services Inc. customers reported consistent dissatisfaction; and Sprint PCS customers reported below-average ratings on many measures, though the carrier does provide a well-received product and service range. "

Tuesday, April 06, 2004

AT&T Wireless losing 150,000 subscribers/quarter

According to an article published by the AP:

March 31, 2004, 6:14 PM EST


NEW YORK -- Long dogged by service complaints, AT&T Wireless may be losing as many as 150,000 more subscribers a month now that cell phone users are free to change service providers without losing their phone numbers. An outsized portion of those customers appear to be going to arch-rival Verizon Wireless.

The mounting defections from the company, which is being acquired for $41 billion by Cingular Wireless, are expected to leave AT&T Wireless with its first quarterly decline in subscribers, industry analysts at Bear Stearns and Smith Barney estimate.

Verizon Wireless, meanwhile, is boasting that it has won 10 subscribers from AT&T Wireless for every customer it has lost to that company in the four months since the "keep-your-phone-number" rules took effect in late November.

And in the key battleground of New York City and its suburbs, Verizon Wireless told The Associated Press it has been winning subscribers away from AT&T Wireless at a 20-to-1 clip, with an overall gain of nearly 65,000 customers from AT&T Wireless in that market.

AT&T Wireless declined to comment Wednesday on the figures from analysts or its rivals, many of whom have been targeting AT&T Wireless customers in hopes the company is distracted by its merger plans.

The figures suggest that a good many AT&T Wireless customers, including the industry's largest base of high-paying business users, may have been dissatisfied with their cell phone service for some time, but stayed because they didn't want to lose their phone numbers.

But there's no sign yet that Cingular, a joint venture between SBC Communications and BellSouth, is having second thoughts about the hefty price tag it agreed to pay for AT&T Wireless in February.

"Cingular knew how bad January was (for AT&T Wireless) before they signed the deal," said Phil Cusick, an industry analyst for Bear Stearns who now estimates that AT&T Wireless will show a net loss of 200,000 customers for the quarter. "They'd have to lose about 5 million customers before they impair the value of this business by 10 percent. I think that's really unlikely," he said, referring to a reported escape clause in the deal.

In the third quarter of 2003, AT&T Wireless was losing an average of nearly 600,000 customers per month, but was signing up enough new subscribers to show a net gain of 229,000 for the period. That "churn" rate grew to more than 700,000 per month in the fourth quarter as the new phone number rules went into effect, but AT&T Wireless still showed an overall gain of 128,000 customers.

Analysts are now estimating, however, that customer losses at AT&T Wireless may average more than 750,000 a month for the first quarter, far surpassing the number of new subscribers.

In a bid to stem its customer losses, AT&T Wireless has been upgrading portions of its network to improve call quality and offering free phone upgrades to some subscribers to enable them to take advantage of the improvement.

With that work completed in nine key markets, including New York City, the company has gone on the offensive, with full-page ads in major newspapers such as The New York Times, declaring itself superior to Verizon Wireless in call quality -- a central theme of Verizon Wireless' marketing efforts.

Those claims -- based on so-called "drive tests" where wireless calls are made from a battery of cell phones in a moving car -- were likely a strong motivation behind Verizon Wireless' decision to disclose its tally of customers won from AT&T Wireless.

"According to our drive testing, our records indicate we had the best results, and AT&T Wireless' results were not second best," said Howard Waterman, a spokesman for Verizon Wireless, which is a joint venture between Verizon Communications and Vodafone PLC of Britain. Verizon may even take AT&T Wireless to court over the claims, Waterman said.

While Cingular's purchase of AT&T Wireless is expected to put the merged company ahead of Verizon in market share -- combined, they had 46 million customers at the end of 2003 -- Verizon's momentum may close that gap considerably by the time the merger is completed, expected later this year.

Verizon's cellular subscriber base ballooned by more than 5 million customers in 2003 for a market-leading, year-end total of 37.5 million.

Cingular has been adding more than half a million customers a quarter for the past three quarters, one of the strongest growth rates in the industry -- but not enough to keep pace with Verizon, particularly if AT&T Wireless continues to stumble.

Then again, Verizon's recent success may help explain anecdotal reports that its vaunted wireless network may be getting congested.

"Maybe that's why we're hearing a pickup in complaints" about the number of dropped and blocked calls for Verizon's customers in the New York area, Cusick said.

Thursday, January 29, 2004

According to the FCC, AT&T Wireless has been cited for the most WLNP complaints:

"AT&T Wireless was cited in the most complaints with 2,297; Sprint PCS received 1,119 complaints; Verizon Wireless received 739; Cingular Wireless L.L.C. was mentioned in 699; T-Mobile USA Inc. received 625 complaints; Nextel Communications Inc. was cited in 332 complaints; Qwest Communications International Inc. got 195 complaints and Alltel Corp. got 119 complaints. "

Ouch!
This is an article from Reuters that discusses Verizon's 14.6% increase in quarterly revenue and 1.5 customer adds (for a total of 37.5 million). Also significant is their churn rate, which dropped to 1.7% (compared with 2.1% last year), and total profit of $307M, up from $206M last year.

Another key item in the article is Verizon's CEO, Ivan Sidenberg, encouraging Vodafone (which owns 45% of Verizon) to shed its stake in favor of an AT&T Wireless takeover.

Reuters | Latest Financial News / Full News Coverage

Wednesday, January 28, 2004

Merger mania is really taking hold in the wireless space. In addition to the fact that AWE is actively soliciting a buyer, all sorts of rumors are floating around, including a possible purchase of Sprint PCS by VZW. The latter I tend to discount, since that would be a merger of truly epic proportions, but you can never rule it out, especially since the two companies have a long history of partnership. IMHO, a VZW/Sprint merger would be great (especially since I am a VZW customer that would potentially benefit!).

Other merger rumors that I don't believe include Nextel buying AWE (why? their technologies are pretty much incompatible).
This is the newsletter for Vocalabs, which rates the cellular carriers in terms of voice quality, customer sat, etc. This report definitely bears out my decision to switch to VZW, which came out on top in just about every category.

Vocal Laboratories Inc. Newsletter
Although I haven't documented it here, I switched from AT&T Wireless to Verizon back in December due to exactly the problems that this article references. Seems to me that IT glitches that cost AWE $100M in lost revenue, etc., should have been resolved just a little bit more quickly (that's assuming that they HAVE been solved), especially if they were planning to sell the company!

BUYER BEWARE: AT&T WIRELESS REELING FROM IT PROBLEMS
This blog is dedicated to all things "cellular": carriers, phones, shades (just kidding), etc.